Propuesta metodológica para predecir el próximo lugar de actuación de un pederasta en serie.
In this paper, a methodology is proposed to identify the areas of the city where a serial child molester is most likely to act in the near future. The authors hypothesize that the analysis of environmental variables common to all the places where the pedophile acted will allow identifying the rest o...
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2019
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International e-journal of criminal sciences, ISSN 1988-7949, Nº. 14, 2019 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Special Issue)
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Spanish
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Geographic profilin
prediction serial offender cognitive map comparison by pairs Perfil geográfico predicción delincuente serial mapa mental comparación por pares |
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Geographic profilin
prediction serial offender cognitive map comparison by pairs Perfil geográfico predicción delincuente serial mapa mental comparación por pares Maldonado Guzmán, Diego Jesús Salafranca Barreda, Daniel Propuesta metodológica para predecir el próximo lugar de actuación de un pederasta en serie. |
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In this paper, a methodology is proposed to identify the areas of the city where a serial child molester is most likely to act in the near future. The authors hypothesize that the analysis of environmental variables common to all the places where the pedophile acted will allow identifying the rest of the zones with similar environmental characteristics, being in those areas where it is most likely to act next time. A case of pedophile in fictitious series is split for this. After applying the proposed method, based on a comparison analysis by pairs, it is observed that two of the five scenes of the crime are located in the area indicated as maximum probability, a third in the area of "very high risk" and both remaining scenes fall on the third area designated as "high risk". The results indicate a moderate estimate of the crimes already committed and, in addition, two new hot spots appear that correspond to the most likely future areas of action. A series of limitations are discussed at the end.
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Article
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| author |
Maldonado Guzmán, Diego Jesús
Salafranca Barreda, Daniel |
| author_facet |
Maldonado Guzmán, Diego Jesús
Salafranca Barreda, Daniel |
| author_sort |
Maldonado Guzmán, Diego Jesús
|
| title |
Propuesta metodológica para predecir el próximo lugar de actuación de un pederasta en serie.
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| title_short |
Propuesta metodológica para predecir el próximo lugar de actuación de un pederasta en serie.
|
| title_full |
Propuesta metodológica para predecir el próximo lugar de actuación de un pederasta en serie.
|
| title_fullStr |
Propuesta metodológica para predecir el próximo lugar de actuación de un pederasta en serie.
|
| title_full_unstemmed |
Propuesta metodológica para predecir el próximo lugar de actuación de un pederasta en serie.
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| title_sort |
propuesta metodológica para predecir el próximo lugar de actuación de un pederasta en serie.
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| publishDate |
2019
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| url |
https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/oaiart?codigo=7298469
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1825111614550966272
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dialnet-ar-18-ART00013705832020-03-26Propuesta metodológica para predecir el próximo lugar de actuación de un pederasta en serie.Maldonado Guzmán, Diego JesúsSalafranca Barreda, DanielGeographic profilinpredictionserial offendercognitive mapcomparison by pairsPerfil geográficoprediccióndelincuente serialmapa mentalcomparación por paresIn this paper, a methodology is proposed to identify the areas of the city where a serial child molester is most likely to act in the near future. The authors hypothesize that the analysis of environmental variables common to all the places where the pedophile acted will allow identifying the rest of the zones with similar environmental characteristics, being in those areas where it is most likely to act next time. A case of pedophile in fictitious series is split for this. After applying the proposed method, based on a comparison analysis by pairs, it is observed that two of the five scenes of the crime are located in the area indicated as maximum probability, a third in the area of "very high risk" and both remaining scenes fall on the third area designated as "high risk". The results indicate a moderate estimate of the crimes already committed and, in addition, two new hot spots appear that correspond to the most likely future areas of action. A series of limitations are discussed at the end.En este estudio se propone una metodología para identificar las zonas de la ciudad donde es más probable que actúe próximamente un pederasta en serie. Los autores hipotetizan que el análisis de variables ambientales comunes a todos los lugares donde actuó el pederasta permitirá identificar el resto de las zonas con similares características ambientales, siendo en esas zonas donde más probablemente actúe la próxima vez. Se parte para ello de un caso de pederasta en serie ficticio. Tras aplicar el método propuesto, basado en un análisis de comparación por pares, se observa que dos de las cinco escenas del crimen se sitúan en la zona señalada como de máxima probabilidad, una tercera en la zona de “riesgo muy alto” y las dos escenas restantes recaen sobre la tercera zona señalada como de “alto riesgo”. Los resultados indican una estimación moderada de los delitos ya cometidos y, además, aparecen dos puntos calientes nuevos que se corresponden con las zonas de actuación futura más probables. Se discuten al final una serie de limitaciones. In this paper, a methodology is proposed to identify the areas of the city where a serial child molester is most likely to act in the near future. The authors hypothesize that the analysis of environmental variables common to all the places where the pedophile acted will allow identifying the rest of the zones with similar environmental characteristics, being in those areas where it is most likely to act next time. A case of pedophile in fictitious series is split for this. After applying the proposed method, based on a comparison analysis by pairs, it is observed that two of the five scenes of the crime are located in the area indicated as maximum probability, a third in the area of "very high risk" and both remaining scenes fall on the third area designated as "high risk". The results indicate a moderate estimate of the crimes already committed and, in addition, two new hot spots appear that correspond to the most likely future areas of action. A series of limitations are discussed at the end.2019text (article)application/pdfhttps://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/oaiart?codigo=7298469(Revista) ISSN 1988-7949International e-journal of criminal sciences, ISSN 1988-7949, Nº. 14, 2019 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Special Issue)spaLICENCIA DE USO: Los documentos a texto completo incluidos en Dialnet son de acceso libre y propiedad de sus autores y/o editores. Por tanto, cualquier acto de reproducción, distribución, comunicación pública y/o transformación total o parcial requiere el consentimiento expreso y escrito de aquéllos. Cualquier enlace al texto completo de estos documentos deberá hacerse a través de la URL oficial de éstos en Dialnet. Más información: https://dialnet.unirioja.es/info/derechosOAI | INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS STATEMENT: Full text documents hosted by Dialnet are protected by copyright and/or related rights. This digital object is accessible without charge, but its use is subject to the licensing conditions set by its authors or editors. Unless expressly stated otherwise in the licensing conditions, you are free to linking, browsing, printing and making a copy for your own personal purposes. All other acts of reproduction and communication to the public are subject to the licensing conditions expressed by editors and authors and require consent from them. Any link to this document should be made using its official URL in Dialnet. More info: https://dialnet.unirioja.es/info/derechosOAI
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