Propuesta metodológica para predecir el próximo lugar de actuación de un pederasta en serie.
In this paper, a methodology is proposed to identify the areas of the city where a serial child molester is most likely to act in the near future. The authors hypothesize that the analysis of environmental variables common to all the places where the pedophile acted will allow identifying the rest o...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Spanish |
| Published: |
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/oaiart?codigo=7298469 |
| Source: | International e-journal of criminal sciences, ISSN 1988-7949, Nº. 14, 2019 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Special Issue) |
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| Summary: |
In this paper, a methodology is proposed to identify the areas of the city where a serial child molester is most likely to act in the near future. The authors hypothesize that the analysis of environmental variables common to all the places where the pedophile acted will allow identifying the rest of the zones with similar environmental characteristics, being in those areas where it is most likely to act next time. A case of pedophile in fictitious series is split for this. After applying the proposed method, based on a comparison analysis by pairs, it is observed that two of the five scenes of the crime are located in the area indicated as maximum probability, a third in the area of "very high risk" and both remaining scenes fall on the third area designated as "high risk". The results indicate a moderate estimate of the crimes already committed and, in addition, two new hot spots appear that correspond to the most likely future areas of action. A series of limitations are discussed at the end. |
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