El efecto de las predisposiciones políticas y las condiciones sociales en una elección semicompetitiva. Chile 1988

Generally, successor plebiscites to define the continuity of a dictator in power are analyzed from the point of view of the competition between authoritarian and democratic elites. Less space is given to the study of public opinion, due to the absence of surveys that the very author-itarian regimes...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Morales Quiroga, Mauricio, Rubilar, Fernando
Format: Article
Language:Spanish
Published: 2017
Subjects:
plebiscitos
Chile
conducta electoral
encuestas
partidos
Pinochet
Online Access:https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/oaiart?codigo=6260964
Source:Revista española de ciencia política, ISSN 1575-6548, Nº 45, 2017, pags. 95-121
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El efecto de las predisposiciones políticas y las condiciones sociales en una elección semicompetitiva. Chile 1988
Summary: Generally, successor plebiscites to define the continuity of a dictator in power are analyzed from the point of view of the competition between authoritarian and democratic elites. Less space is given to the study of public opinion, due to the absence of surveys that the very author-itarian regimes very often prohibit. Thus, the case of Chile is exceptional. The Center for Stud-ies of Contemporary Reality (CERC) conducted surveys prior to the successor plebiscite held in 1988 to decide the continuity of General Pinochet in power for eight more years. Based on this information, we identified the political and social determinants that explained the tri-umph of the opposition. Through a series of binomial and multinomial models, we verified that the “No” option had greater support among men, young people and people of low socio-economic status, clearly marking a continuity with the voting patterns for the center-left par-ties before the 1973 coup d’état. Moreover, we maintain that the “No” option was the preferred one even before the broadcast of television propaganda. Thus, the case of Chile is useful to evaluate electoral behavior models in undemocratic scenarios, identifying the long and short-term factors that explain political outcomes.

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