¿Fallaron las encuestas y los pronósticos en los resultados electorales de 2020 en Estados Unidos?

Some results of the presidential elections from November 3 rd, 2020 in the United States point to significant differences with the information that the polls and electoral projections showed, mainly in regard to the behavior of Republican voters. As it had happened on several occasions before, these...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Guzmán Castillo, Jesús, Muñoz Portillo, Juan, Vega Rojas, Diego
Format: Article
Language:Spanish
Published: 2021
Subjects:
encuestas electorales
intención de voto
difusión de encuestas
polarización política
polarización afectiva
elecciones presidenciales
Estados Unidos
electoral polls
intention of vote
dissemination of surveys
political polarization
affective polarization
presidential elections
United States
Online Access:https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/oaiart?codigo=7798558
Source:Revista de Derecho Electoral, ISSN 1659-2069, Nº. 31, 2021
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¿Fallaron las encuestas y los pronósticos en los resultados electorales de 2020 en Estados Unidos?
Summary: Some results of the presidential elections from November 3 rd, 2020 in the United States point to significant differences with the information that the polls and electoral projections showed, mainly in regard to the behavior of Republican voters. As it had happened on several occasions before, these discrepancies lead to question the alleged predictive role of polls. In this article, we stand by the fact that the judgement on polls in this case may be over dimensioned. In addition, we provide explanation as to which methodological and theoretical factors can serve to explain the differences between forecasts and results according to research in relevant literature concerning polls and politics in The United States

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